First thing’s first: this is the Finals matchup the NBA wanted, as we pointed out a week ago. For that reason, you can expect this series to go 6 or 7 games for maximized TV revenue, just like the 2022 NBA Finals did when Boston was taking on Golden State. And just like that matchup, the Celtics will be favored mathematically and sabermetrically to win it all. However, this time Boston will prevail; we suspect in six.

Remember, Boston and Dallas are Top 10 TV markets, so we can expect the league to make sure it gets as much revenue as possible from this matchup. That is often the situation in the NBA, of course, dating back to at least the 1995 NBA Finals, when the league probably advocated for a sweep with small-market Orlando playing then-small market Houston, the defending champions. Since then, it seems the league has meddled.

In terms of the math, Boston was—by far—the best team in the NBA this season: almost 3.5 points per game clear of the field in terms of expected winning margin(s). The Celtics won 7 more games than any other team did, as well, posting a 64-18 record with an 11.4-point average margin of victory. In comparison, the Mavericks won 50 games with a meager 2.3-point average MoV. They’re sort of lucky to be here, in truth.

Dallas rates out sabermetrically as an 8.5-point underdog on a neutral court here, for each game played. That’s not encouraging, considering home-court advantage doesn’t cover even half that deficit. Thus, the Mavericks will have to catch a lot of breaks here, like the Golden State Warriors did in 2022, to overcome the Celtics’ immense advantage. Keep an eye on the officiating in any game that’s somewhat close late.

Back in 2022, Boston had the math edge, too, but the team was tired after playing 2 full series in the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Celtics needed 7 games in both the Eastern semis and the Eastern finals just to get to the Finals, while the Warriors had an easier pathway to get there—which they needed for their old(er) legs. Golden State only played 2 fewer games in the Western Conference playoffs, but the path seemed light.

Yet when Boston took a 2-1 lead in the matchup against the Warriors, it seemed like the math would hold with Game 4 on the Celtics’ home court. Alas, Boston shot just 40 percent from the floor in that key game, as their tired legs began to falter. The Celts then shot less than 42 percent combined in Games 5 and 6 to lose their shot at the title. We expect Boston to shoot better this time around, for a big reason: maturity.

The Celtics have played just 14 games to reach the Finals, compared to the hard 18 games they played to get to this same point 2 seasons ago. Meanwhile, the Mavs have played 17 games, and even the difference there will matter quite a lot in the closing minutes of each contest. So, the math here says sweep; the money says a Game 7. We’re splitting the difference and going with the Celtics in 6 games. Don’t say we didn’t warn you.