We like to do this miniseries when we have time, and we’ve found ourselves with some time today. So here we go with our Stanley Cup Playoffs predictions for 2024, with the reminder that if we pick half the series correct, we feel we’re doing well. Postseason hockey, along with some elements of postseason baseball, are the most unpredictable playoffs of all the 4 major North American professional sports. It’s a crapshoot.

That being said, we emphasize 2 specific elements when we do our predictions, in addition to the standard SRS rankings: goal differential and regulation/overtime wins. There are no shootouts in the NHL playoffs, of course, so teams must win by scoring goals, and that often predicts postseason success the best. Of course, as we have seen many times, a No. 8 seed knocking off the No. 1 seed in the Cup playoffs? Common.

Here we go, with the Eastern Conference first, followed by the Western Conference:

New York Rangers vs. Washington Capitals—The Rangers won the Presidents’ Trophy, and that’s often a curse. Lucky for New York, they draw the Capitals, one of the worst playoff teams in recent memory in terms of goal differential (minus-37) and SRS ranking (14th out of 16 in conference). With just 32 regulation wins as well, Washington is in way over its head here against the Rangers (plus-53, 3rd, 43 RWs). Anything can happen, of course, but we’re being generous to the Caps with this prediction. New York in five.

Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning—This should be a pretty good series, with the Panthers trying to get back to the Cup Finals where they lost last year. Florida is the top SRS team in the East, and they have the edge in goal differential (plus-69 to plus-23) and RWs (42-37), too. Tampa Bay is always dangerous with its veteran experience, but the Panthers should be too much in this one. Florida in six.

Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs—This is a historical matchup, of course, between 2 teams from the Original Six era. It also may be the closest series of them all in the first round, in terms of data. Boston has slight edges in SRS, goal differential, and RWs … and the Bruins have home ice, too. All that adds up to another disappointing postseason for the Maple Leafs, who haven’t won it all since 1967. Boston in seven.

Carolina Hurricanes vs. New York Islanders—Like the Capitals, the Islanders are a pretty weak playoff team (10th in SRS, minus-17, 29 RWs). That last number is strikingly bad. In comparison, the Hurricanes are one of the best teams in the conference (2nd, plus-63, 44). We were kind to Washington in that prediction, because the Rangers are overrated. Carolina is underrated, in contrast. Carolina in four.

Dallas Stars vs. Vegas Golden Knights—What to make of the defending champs when they nab the mere final seed in the Western Conference? We won’t write the Golden Knights off just yet, but the odds are really against them here as the Stars were pretty dominant this season (1st in SRS, plus-64, 40 RWs). Vegas made the postseason almost by default (8th, plus-22, 34 RWs), but champions die hard. Dallas in six.

Vancouver Canucks vs. Nashville Predators— The top 5 teams in the West are all closely matched, and the Canucks are in that group. The Predators are a solid team, though, so this won’t be easy for Vancouver. With 4 Canadian teams in the playoffs, we’d like to see the Cup go back north sooner or later. The Canucks have all the edges here, by solid margins, too. But we respect Nashville, nonetheless. Vancouver in six.

Winnipeg Jets vs. Colorado Avalanche—The Jets posted the most RWs (46) in the NHL this year, which is a strong sign. Yet the Avs were right there themselves with 42 RWs. This is a close matchup, and even though Winnipeg has all the advantages, including home ice, we have to be wary of a recent Cup champion playing well. Is it close enough for Colorado to pull off the upset? No. Winnipeg in seven.

Edmonton Oilers vs. Los Angeles Kings—This should be a fun series, with the Oilers’ high-scoring attack against the Kings’ stout goaltending. Edmonton has all the edges here, sabermetrically and with home ice, but we all know how hot netminders can take over a series and steal it. This is the eighth season of the Oilers’ “resurgence” with just 1 trip to the conference finals to show for it: no heart. Los Angeles in seven.

Editor’s Note: as usual, we will check back before the second round to see how badly we did here.