We know we just wrote about this a few days ago, but after experience the San Francisco 49ers’ 28-16 victory over the Seattle Seahawks at Levi’s Stadium today, we’re just not sold on the new “favorites” for the NFL Super Bowl in February. We have our reasons, and we will start with the present-day ones before looking into the historical/past=precedent reasons next. Just keep an open mind, as always, with us here; thanks.

Coming off a dominant win on the road in Philadelphia, the 49ers were 13.5-point favorites at home to beat a .500 Seattle team that didn’t have its starting quarterback available—a QB we chose as our NFL MVP in 2022. In fact, the Seahawks were starting journeyman Drew Lock today on the road: he didn’t play in a single NFL game in 2022, and he is 8-14 now in a pro career that began in 2019 with the Denver Broncos.

Somehow, the 49ers gave up 324 yards to the Seattle offense, even as Lock tossed two interceptions on plays where a properly thrown ball would have been a touchdown to a wide open receiver. San Francisco obviously did not cover the point spread, and this game was way too close all things considered. The 49ers offense committed two turnovers and some costly penalties, as well. We know the Seahawks are tough …

But if you’re beating the the next-best teams in the NFC by a combined 84-29 margin this season, you need be beating this Seattle team by more than the point spread, especially at home and against a bad quarterback. Alas the Seahawks’ familiarity with the 49ers probably aided in the closer-than-expected game, but that leads us to the larger issue at hand here: Kyle Shanahan, he of the NFL’s nepotism pipeline.

This is a head coach who had three losing seasons in his first four once in charge of the 49ers—the one winning year resulting a Super Bowl loss to the Kansas City Chiefs where San Francisco blew a 10-point lead with 7 minutes left in the game, getting outscored 21-0 from that point forward. Sadly, that’s not even the worst Super Bowl embarrassment on Shanahan’s resume, since this disaster (linked) was his fault, too.

He was Atlanta Falcons offensive coordinator who helped blow a 28-3, second-half Super Bowl lead against the cheatin’ New England Patriots. Sure, maybe the Pats had some SpyGate magic up their sleeves in this one—we can never rule that out, obviously—but either way, we all know some better play calling in the second half would have clinched the game for the Falcons. So, Shanahan has two blown SB leads on him.

Then, there was the 2021 NFC Championship Game: on the road, the 49ers had a 10-lead on the Los Angeles Rams in the final quarter before going scoreless the rest of the way and losing that game by 3 points. As discussed many times, this is suddenly a pattern for Shanahan in the postseason, and while no one blames him for the S.F. road playoff loss to Philadelphia in the 2022 NFC Championship Game, maybe they should.

After all, no matter how many injuries a team suffers to its QB corps, you have to be ready to serve up someone who can take a team with as much talent as the San Francisco roster possesses to a win, anytime and anywhere. Shanahan failed to do that last season. So, yes, he gets credit for mining and developing Brock Purdy, but he also takes the blame for not employing a serviceable backup for that offensive power.

Thus, until we see Shanahan actually do it, we probably are wrong to pick him and the 49ers in advance—no matter how obvious it looks to be on paper or in our analytical minds.