There are five weeks left in the NFL’s regular season, and then there will be usual unpredictability of the postseason tournament—are you paying attention, CFP?—that makes the quest for the Super Bowl one of the more engaging sports journeys in North America. ESPN has some fun mathematical projections online and updated this week, and we will share those below next to our own ideas. We’re just doing this for fun.

Let’s start with the AFC, which is a big mess right now with 13 teams having a realistic shot at the 7 postseason berths, currently. That’s pretty insane, and it will sort itself out, but still … there are only 2 wins separating the top teams (Miami, Baltimore, ) from the 7th-place teams (Indianapolis, Houston). And the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs are in the middle there, too, which is a complication.

Our favorite sabermetrics suggest the playoff teams in the AFC will be, in order, Baltimore, Miami, Kansas City, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Cleveland, and Houston— with the Ravens having twice the chance to make it to the Super Bowl that the Dolphins have. That’s a big gap between the top two teams in the conference, of course. The Browns are our sentimental favorites, of course, but this is math that always rules the day.

ESPN’s numbers put Miami a little bit above Baltimore as the favorite, with Kansas City also in the top trio there albeit a little bit behind the Ravens. However, we clearly see that these three teams are the distinct “best bets” for the conference. For the time being then, let’s put the Ravens, the Dolphins, and the Chiefs on the shelf as the AFC leaders to reach the Super Bowl. We can come back to this after we look at the NFC.

The other conference is a little less murky, although it is still complicated: 11 teams still have a realistic shot at the playoffs, despite the larger gap (4 wins) between the top team (Philadelphia) and the last teams in the final playoff spot right now (Green Bay, Los Angeles, Seattle). Right behind the Eagles are the San Francisco 49ers, which we rate as the top sabermetric team in the NFL right now—and we’re not alone, we suspect.

In fact, the 49ers and the Dallas Cowboys have separated themselves from the rest of the pack in terms of the math, and with San Francisco having beaten up Dallas by a 42-10 score earlier this year, it would seem the 49ers have the distinct edge. If those two teams played each other in the postseason, home-field advantage could weigh heavily, but both teams currently are one game behind the Eagles in the standings.

San Francisco also just hammered Philly by a 42-19 score, yet somehow the 49ers lost three games between those two big victories. So, we know they’re not infallible. However, using just the math, we do see the clear fact that S.F. and Dallas are the best two teams in the NFC, by far. ESPN also gives the 49ers the best shot, by far to reach the Super Bowl from the conference, with Dallas and Philly trailing as the only other real shots.

So, the gap between our top teams from both conferences combined and the other teams is pretty clear. That gives us 5 title favorites right now: San Francisco, Baltimore, Dallas, Miami, and Kansas City—in that order, which reflects our sabermetric projections. The chances of a champion coming from outside that quintet is slim right now, although a lot can change in 5 weeks—or 9 weeks, even, with playoff upsets.

For example, ESPN still projects the Eagles to have a better chance at clinching the NFC bye than the 49ers, which would make S.F. play an extra game, this exposing it to more potential injury, and then have to travel to Philadelphia again and try to repeat the winning performance from last Sunday. That’s a tall order, as the Eagles would be better rested and certainly better prepared for a rematch. The math takes that into account.

In the AFC, any of the top teams could still realistically secure the bye in that conference, leaving the SB berth much more wide open. Right now, maybe Miami has the edge, but again, we know the Chiefs have hosted five straight AFC Championship matchups, so here’s to an assumption that somehow they will find the way to get it done that way again. The disparity in home-field probability accounts for the SB variables.

Getting back to the lede: who will be playing in the Super Bowl? It’s too hard for us to pick against Kansas City and San Francisco, in truth. The Chiefs have the experience to make it happen readily, and the 49ers have the talent to overrun all teams. This would be a rematch of the 2019 Super Bowl, of course, which K.C. won with an incredible, fourth-quarter comeback. Yet this time, we think the 49ers would prevail, readily.

We will be going to the Seattle-San Francisco matchup this Sunday in person to check it out, but we’re confident in this pick right now. So … there you have it; check back with us in February to see if we were right. But does anyone know what Taylor Swift is doing for the Super Bowl?! Just curious.