We’re back after the first weekend of November action in college football to take another peek at which teams the polls are overrating, which teams the sabermetrics like best, and which teams are just too disgusting to discuss (much). As most schools have played nine games now, the data is more accurate—and the stakes are higher as we move closer to another round of the corrupt College Football Playoff. Huzzah!

First, our list of the teams that are being propped up way too high in the Associated Press and mediot polls:

  • Tulane: Ranked 29.5 spots higher in polls than by math
  • Fresno State: 28 spots higher
  • Liberty: 27.5 spots higher
  • James Madison: 23 spots higher
  • Kansas: 10.5 spots higher

The Green Wave plays in the AAC, and it lost to Mississippi by 17 points earlier this year for its only loss. The SOS is the issue here: the schedule is so bad, there’s just no good wins on the slate. The Bulldogs play in the MWC, and the problem is comparable: They have wins over bad Power 5 teams, but Fresno State also lost to Wyoming. Both these teams have no business being ranked, of course. And then there’s Liberty …

The Flames play in Conference USA, and they’re 9-0 without a single win over any good team(s). James Madison? The Dukes (9-0) play in the Sun Belt, and they did beat Virginia, but that’s not saying much, either. As for the Jayhawks (7-2), they did beat Oklahoma, but they also lost to Texas by 26 points, as well as losing to Oklahoma State as well. We think Kansas is a good team, but it’s not a Top 20 team at all. Nope.

Now, our list of the schools that are quite underrated by the those polls, according to the math:

  • Kansas State: Ranked 18 spots higher by math than in polls
  • Notre Dame: 9.5 spots higher
  • USC: 9 spots higher
  • LSU: 8.5 spots higher
  • Oklahoma: 6.5 spots higher

We expect the Wildcats to beat the Jayhawks when they play on November 18; in fact, right now the math says Kansas State has a 77-percent chance to win that one. The Fighting Irish are 7-3 and will finish 9-3 to get into some mid-level bowl, but the loss to Clemson this weekend really hurt Notre Dame. As for the Trojans (7-3), their 6-0 start could end up fading into a 1-5 finish because the defense is so bad. Ouch.

LSU has three losses by a combined 41 points to three Top 10 teams in the AP poll. The Tigers should finish 9-3, and they’d made a great bowl opponent for the Irish, for sure. The Sooners (7-2) will have to win out and win the Big XII Conference Championship Game in order to have an outside shot at the four-team CFP, but losing to both Kansas and Oklahoma State by a combined 8 points have all but demolished those hopes.

In the end, our guess is that all five of those overrated teams won’t end up ranked by the end of the season, but a perfect 13-0 record no matter what the conference usually generated a lot of “respect” votes. The good news is that the teams headed for the CFP look solid in terms of math, although there is still the big elephant in the room in terms of whether one team should even be allowed to continue playing. Stay tuned.