We already analyzed the Associated Press preseason Top 25 for men’s college basketball, but in the past, we’ve also been very focused on the sabermetrics in the sport—to the point of isolating the “best bets” for winning the NCAA Tournament. It’s time to merge these analyses into one piece, as the ball will soon tip off the road to March Madness, using the same data points we’ve used successfully over the past few of years.

This is our “short” list of first-tier teams with the best shots to win the 2024 NCAA crown:

  • Houston: No. 3 offense (projected), No. 5 defense (projected)
  • Kansas: No. 9, No. 1
  • Connecticut: No. 8, No. 4
  • Purdue: No. 2 ; No. 14
  • Baylor: No. 5, No. 20
  • Alabama: No. 14, No. 11
  • Michigan State: No. 17, No. 10
  • Arkansas: No. 19, No. 9
  • Creighton: No. 11, No. 18
  • Auburn: No. 16, No. 15

That’s a long line for a short list, we know, but each team matches the profile of the usual NCAA winners: top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. We’d be willing to bet $1, though, that the eventual champion comes from this group. After this Top 10, though, there is the second tier of contenders, perfectly capable of overachieving in one area of efficiency to compensate for the whole:

  • Gonzaga: No. 1, No.26
  • Arizona: No. 4, No. 23
  • Duke: No. 7, No. 22
  • Marquette: No. 6, No. 28
  • Tennessee: No. 33, No. 2
  • Texas: No. 30, No. 6

These teams have dominant units on one side of the court and perfectly able units on the other. But they need more balance/consistency to make a serious push to the top. However, no one would be (or should be?) surprised to see those teams make a deep run to the Final Four, etc. Finally, our third tier represents those teams with a legitimate “long shot” at the title, meaning it’s within the realm of possibility (not probability):

  • North Carolina: No. 15, No. 24
  • Illinois: No. 18, No. 21
  • Wisconsin: No. 31, No. 13
  • USC: No. 25, No. 19
  • Kentucky: No. 10, No. 35
  • Maryland: No. 20, No. 29
  • Texas A&M: No. 27, No. 27

This final group features teams with a lot of upside that will need to outperform their projected efficiency at the right times against the right opponents. And we’d be willing to bet $5 that the eventual title team comes from within these three groups of a combined 22 programs. The hard part, obviously, is merely predicting which ones make the Final Four—and which one gets to cut down the nets in Phoenix come April 2024.