We have been doing this here and there for the current college football season, and with college basketball just around the corner—heck, it’s already arrived for many campuses where football season is already lost/over—it’s time to take a peek at the Associated Press and Coaches polls in comparison to KenPom.com ratings for the preseason. The latter is the ultimate assessment of a team’s quality, despite no 2024 data yet.

This is what we have found with a cursory examination, to be repeated here and there throughout the year:

  • Miami Hurricanes: 32 spots higher in the polls than in the advanced sabermetrics
  • Florida Atlantic Owls: 27.5 spots higher
  • St. Mary’s Gaels: 15 spots higher
  • San Diego State Aztecs: 13 spots higher

These are the most overrated teams in the polls right now, and it’s interesting considering a good portion of the preseason sabermetric rank comes from last year’s end performance. The Hurricanes finished 24th last year in KenPom, but the math has no confidence in them this year (45th). Likewise for FAU (17th, 37th), St. Mary’s (13th, 38th), and SDSU (14th, 29th). We know the Aztecs and the Owls crashed the party, too, but …

The mathematical projections are not kind, for one reason or another. On the other end of the spectrum, these are the teams that are really underrated right now:

  • Auburn Tigers: 20 spots higher in the advanced sabermetrics than in the polls
  • Illinois Fighting Illini: 16 spots higher
  • Alabama Crimson Tide: 14 spots higher
  • Baylor Bears: 11.5 spots higher
  • Kansas State Wildcats: 10 spots higher
  • UCLA Bruins: 10 spots higher

Yes, there are all Power 5 teams, where as most of the overrated list comes from the smaller conferences. That’s telling enough, in itself, perhaps in SOS anticipation via the sabermetrics and/or anticipated talent levels. We will see how this pans out as the calendar year comes to end, but remember this information when the times comes. We will remind you, no doubt; it’s what we do here—always, right or wrong.