We have talked about this for years now: winning the World Series is all about payroll. And guess what? Nothing changes. Last week, we discussed how money can make even incompetent managers look “good” to the clueless, and it’s happening yet again. This is why the MLB playoffs are such a bore: the second- and fourth-best teams during the regular season have little chance due to their low payrolls. Does anyone care?!
Exhibit A: Tampa Bay Rays
Winners of 99 games with the fourth-lowest payroll ($79M), the Rays lost two home games to the Texas Rangers last week to get eliminated from the playoffs. The Rangers lost 24 of their final 42 games to limp into the postseason with their $251M payroll, and overall, Texas finished 40-41 on the road—while Tampa was 53-28 at home. So what happens? The Rangers win twice by an 11-1 combined score, defying the math.
Exhibit B: Baltimore Orioles
Winners of 101 games with the third-lowest payroll ($71M), the Orioles lost two home game to the Rangers over the weekend, despite a 49-32 home record this year. Meanwhile, the Rangers were 14-22 in one-run games—another firm sign of bad managerial influence. So, what happens? Texas wins a 3-2 game and then an 11-8 game. The Rangers were mediocre on the road, but they somehow pulled this off, against the math.
Exhibit C: TV Market Size
In the first round of the playoffs, all four teams that advanced did so in two games—meaning there was no third game. Weird, huh? Here is the combined TV market info: Philadelphia (4th) swept Miami (18th); Texas (5th) swept Tampa (13th); Arizona (11th) swept Milwaukee (38th); and Minnesota (15th) swept Toronto—the top Canadian TV market, easily, but baseball isn’t a big thing in Canada like basketball and hockey are.
Conclusion: MLB remains committed to high-payroll winners from big TV markets
What’s the point of the regular season when two teams that combined for 200 victories on low payrolls—thereby showing the exceptional prowess of their organizational methods—can get bounced from the postseason in the blink of an eye by an inferior team that spends more money and has a bigger TV footprint? Baltimore (8th) and Tampa don’t rate win on the TV scale, compared to Dallas, clearly.
On the other side of the American League playoff bracket, you have Minnesota and Houston: which team do you think is going to win that series? The one that spent only $156M and dwells in the 15th-biggest TV market? Or the one that spent $237M and hangs out in the 7th-biggest TV market? Do the math; we already have. And then, do yourself a favor and stop watching the charade of garbage MLB stages every October.
