We checked in on this some time ago, and it’s time to revisit it every Sunday this fall season for college football: which teams are overrated by the polls, because the mediots ignore the math? The Colorado Buffaloes fell hard yesterday, after being ranked in the Top 20 for no reason when the math suggested they should have been ranked in the low 60s. Math can be wrong sometimes, but it never lies in general. Mark it.

Now, after four weeks of college football play, it’s time to assess the polls regularly. This is what we have found with a cursory look at the Associated Press poll, the Coaches poll, the Football Power Index, and Jeff Sagarin. Fresno State is the new media darling, with poll rankings of 25th in the AP and 26th in the Coaches—while being rated just 44th in FPI and 52nd in Sagarin. The Bulldogs are good, but … not poll worthy (yet).

Right behind Fresno State is a typical SEC blowhard: Missouri. The Tigers are ranked 23rd by the mediots and 22nd by the coaches (or their gofers). FPI (40th) and Sagarin (49th) are much less enthused about Missouri, however. The Bulldogs may not face a real challenger in the Mountain West Conference for awhile, but we know the Tigers will crumble in the SEC when the time comes … sooner rather than later.

Which other teams are doomed? The Kansas Jayhawks, with a poll average (24th) way higher than the computer average (45th). When the Big XII schedule kicks in, we will see that school fall from the polls, quickly. Next up is the Washington State Cougars (16.5 polls, 33.5 computers), followed by Duke (-13.5 spots), Florida (-12), and Utah (-11). We’ve learned not to underestimate the Utes, however, so we shall see there.

On the other end of the spectrum are the most underrated teams: Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Central Florida, Clemson, and Oklahoma. The Tigers are 2-2, so they shouldn’t be ranked yet—but the computers really like Clemson (+15.5 spots). The regular season shakes out the contenders from the pretenders, though, especially when the conference schedules start, although we know not all conferences are created equally. Time tells.

Thus, keep in mind, the Fresno State Bulldogs may not lose again, but their computer numbers may not rise, either, due to weak opponents. The Missouri Tigers are prime candidates to take a tumble soon, as are the Kansas Jayhawks. In addition, the Washington State Cougars, Duke Blue Devils, and Florida Gators should drop in the polls eventually—if not very soon depending. But we feel the Utes will stay put and firm.

See you next week for another assessment of this nature; don’t say we didn’t warn you.