For years, we have laughed at the Associated Press poll for college football, even though it’s still the “standard” in the sport for some reason. But the recent nonsense with the Colorado Buffaloes and their overhyped head coach makes us revisit this topic with an update for the 2023 season. Let’s examine this specific example first before looking at other correlations to be made with the current data and polls.

The Buffaloes are 2-0 after beating TCU and Nebraska, which is great since Colorado managed just a single victory last year. This season is already a success for the school and its team. But the AP poll has the Buffs ranked 18th, and the coaches poll—even more laughable than the AP one, as realized two decades ago—has Colorado residing in the No. 21 spot. Honestly, we haven’t even bothered with the coaches poll in forever.

Now, to the math: ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and the Jeff Sagarin ratings (formerly housed at USA Today) are excellent measurements for a team’s true on-the-field performance. Guess where ESPN FPI has the Buffaloes? Currently ranked 58th, overall. As for Sagarin’s rating, well … Colorado is No. 62 in the long-time guru’s mathematical calculations. Something clearly doesn’t connect between the math and the polls.

Now, the math is never perfect, and especially in a college sport—where the mood swings of teenage boys can dictate and often do impact the outcome and results of games—we think it’s even less perfect. But it’s still better than the subjectivity and promotional hype we see in the mediot polls. Clearly, the AP voters and the coaches really don’t have the first objective clue about a team’s quality and/or sabermetric prowess.

There is a difference of over 40 spots between the polls average and the maths average here for the Buffaloes. That’s insane. Which other teams are laughably overvalued in the polls? We will start tracking this every Sunday now for the rest of the season in full, but here is a quick list of the most overrated teams besides Colorado:

  • Duke (24 spots too high in the polls)
  • Washington State (12)
  • Tennessee (7)
  • North Carolina (7)
  • Washington (6.5)
  • Florida State (6)

By the same notion, here are the most underrated teams in the polls:

  • Oklahoma (9.5 spots too low in the polls)
  • Alabama (8.5)
  • Mississippi (7)

It’s early, of course, with data sets being limited, and over the course of the season, we do expect a lot of correction as the math plays out and the polls adjust accordingly to the math-based results on the field of play. But for now, keep this in mind: ignore the mediots and coaches polls. You’ll be more sane if you do.